Recession in 2008?

A growing number of top economists believe that the U.S. economy has now toppled into recession...

Economist Bob Brusca of FAO Economics said he doubted that the U.S. was in recession a week ago, but now he believes there's about a 75% chance that a recession began in January.

"That's what recessions do. They come upon you all of a sudden," he said. "When you look back at history, you're struck by how even-keel it is until the bottom just falls out."...

Worries about banks tightening their lending standards is one reason why the Fed announced two large rate cuts in just the course of eight days in late January, reducing the key federal funds rate from 4.25% to 3%.

Most economists aren't looking for additional cuts of that magnitude, but they do expect more cuts...

But the markets want more drastic action by the Fed. The Chicago Board of Trade's fed fund futures are pricing in a 30% chance of a quarter-point cut this month, when the Fed isn't even scheduled to meet.

Those futures are also pricing in a 100% chance of a quarter-point cut in March, and a 28% chance of a half-point cut during the month, up from virtually no chance of a half-point cut ahead of Tuesday's ISM report.

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