The COLA adjustment is based on the increase from Q3 of one year from the highest previous Q3 average. So a 2.3% increase was announced in 2007 for 2008, and a 5.8% increase was announced in 2008 for 2009.
In Q3 2009, CPI-W was lower than in Q3 2008, so there was no change in benefits for 2010.
For 2011, the calculation is not based on Q3 2010 over Q3 2009, but based on the average CPI-W for Q3 2010 over the highest preceding Q3 average - the 215.495 in Q3 2008. This means CPI-W in Q3 2010 has to average above 215.495 for there to be an increase in Social Security benefits in 2011.
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