Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Oil Prices Drop over 6 Dollars

Oil prices plummeted by the second-largest margin on record Tuesday as investors feared a further decline in U.S. demand after hearing comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Light, sweet crude fell $6.44 to settle at $138.74 a barrel in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The drop in oil was the largest single-day slide in dollar terms since Jan. 17, 1991, when oil fell by $10.56. On that day, President George H.W. Bush withdrew oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve ahead of the first Gulf War.

But in 1991, oil was trading at just $32 a barrel, so the more than $10 slide in dollar terms represented a record 33% drop. Oil fell 4.4% Tuesday, which does not even crack the top 100 price declines in percentage terms.

read the CNN story

Robert Higgs on Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac Bailout

Yes, what is a government for, if not to save us from the impending disaster that its own policies have produced? Thank heavens for the government!...

Ah, equity investment! Now we’re looking at overt government takeover. For laggard students, let us define socialism: government ownership and control of the major means of production (including production of financial services). In a pinch, we can always resort to socialism—after all, we are doing so only in order to save capitalism!

read the entire analysis

Jim Rogers on Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac



Don't Bail Them Out

Zimbabwe Hyperinflation


It has come to this: Zimbabwe is about to run out of the paper to print money on.

Fidelity Printers & Refiners, the state-owned company that tirelessly churns out bank notes for the Robert Mugabe regime, was thrown into a crisis early this month after a German company stopped supplying bank note paper because of concerns over Zimbabwe's recent violent presidential election, widely seen as fraudulent by international observers.

The printing operation drastically slowed. Two-thirds of the 1,000-strong workforce was ordered to go on leave, and two of the three money-printing shifts were canceled.

The result on the streets was an immediate cash crunch.

"If you think this currency shortage is bad, wait two weeks. By then it will be a disaster," said a senior Fidelity staffer, who spoke to The Times on condition of anonymity because he would face dismissal and possible violence for talking to a Western journalist. The paper will run out in two weeks, he said...

As hyperinflation spiraled last year, Fidelity printed million-dollar notes, then 5-million, 10-million, 25-million, 50-million. This year, it has been forced to print 100-million, 250-million and 500-million notes in rapid succession, all now practically worthless. The highest denomination is now 50 billion Zimbabwean dollars (worth a U.S. dollar on the street).

Despite the recent currency shortage, the Zimbabwean dollar has continued to slide against the U.S. dollar and shopkeepers are still increasing their prices steeply. The price of the state-owned Herald newspaper has leaped from 200,000 Zimbabwean dollars early this month to 25 billion now. Before the crunch, a beer at a bar in Harare, the capital, cost 15 billion Zimbabwean dollars. At 5 p.m. July 4, it cost 100 billion ($4 at the time) in the same bar.

read the article

Monday, July 14, 2008

InBev to buy Anheuser-Busch for $52B

Belgian brewer InBev has announced it will buy its U.S. rival Anheuser-Busch for $52 billion to create the world's largest brewer.

The acquisition means control over America's largest brewer, the No. 2 worldwide, moves overseas. Based in St. Louis, Missouri, Anheuser-Busch has more than 48 percent of American market share with brands that include Bud Light.

InBev confirmed the details of the purchase of Anheuser-Busch early Monday. It first bid for Anheuser-Busch on June 11.

InBev is the world's second largest beer maker, with brands that include Stella Artois and Becks.

The deal must be approved by shareholders and European and U.S. antitrust regulators.

read the CNN story

College Major and Salary


source

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Oil Prices and Iran

Iranian missile tests. Reports of covert U.S. operations inside the country. Israeli military exercises designed to simulate an attack on Iran.

The signs are unmistakable: Tensions in the oil-rich Persian Gulf are heating up.

And that matters to oil markets.

Iran sits atop the Persian Gulf, through which pass 20% of all the world's oil. Its missiles are also within easy striking distance of the giant oil fields of Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Together, the Middle East produces 25 million barrels of oil a day, or 30% of the world's total daily production of 86 million barrels...

A successful attack on Abqaiq, he said, would cause sustained oil prices of $200 to $250 a barrel.

read the CNN story



Biofuels and Rising Food Costs

Demand for biofuels in Europe and the United States has forced up food prices 75 percent around the world, according to a World Bank report that was leaked and published in The Guardian newspaper on Friday.

The number stands in sharp contrast to the 3 percent contribution to higher food pricing estimated by the United States Department of Agriculture.

Meanwhile, a study commissioned by food manufacturers pegs the contribution of biofuels on food prices at between 25 percent and 35 percent.

read the article

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Warren Buffett Gives Away $2 Billion

Billionaire Warren Buffett has given away 512,169 Class B shares of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. stock to three charitable foundations in keeping with his plan to give away the bulk of his fortune.

The gifts were revealed in paperwork filed Monday with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Those shares were worth $3,999 each, more than $2.05 billion total, at the close of trading July 1, the day Buffett transferred their ownership.

Most of the shares - 451,250 - went to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Buffett said in 2006 that he planned to give 10 million B shares to the Gates Foundation over time, 1 million B shares for the Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation named in honor of his first wife, and 350,000 shares for each of the three foundations run by his three children.

read the CNN story

Car Payments and Gas Costs


from the New York Times

Friday, July 4, 2008

Cartoon: Gas Prices


Return of a Bad Idea: National Speed Limit

An influential Republican senator suggested Thursday that Congress might want to consider reimposing a national speed limit to save gasoline and possibly ease fuel prices.

Sen. John Warner, R-Virginia, asked Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman to look into what speed limit would provide optimum gasoline efficiency given current technology. He said he wants to know if the administration might support efforts in Congress to require a lower speed limit.

Congress in 1974 set a national 55 mph speed limit because of energy shortages caused by the Arab oil embargo. The speed limit was repealed in 1995 when crude oil dipped to $17 a barrel and gasoline cost $1.10 a gallon.

read the CNN story

My thoughts: Yet another unnecessay government intrusion. If you want to drive at a mpg maximizing speed you are free to do so. Also remember it was a temporary "1 year measure" that ended up lasting 21 years.

Starbucks Closing 600 Stores

As many as 12,000 Starbucks workers will lose their jobs when the company begins closing 600 U.S. stores this summer.


The Seattle coffee company is cutting 5 percent of its U.S. locations as part of a wide-ranging effort to boost its bottom line and its stock price. The chain is accelerating international growth.


Most customers whose Starbucks stores close will be a short walk from a caffeine fix, the company said, because many of the unprofitable stores were being cannibalized by nearby Starbucks locations.


The company will try to find jobs for people within Starbucks, but that could be difficult with fewer than 350 new U.S. stores expected to open in the fiscal year beginning Oct. 1.








Cartoon: Recession?


My Thoughts: Remember a recession is a period of 2 quarters of decling GDP. We have yet to have 1 quarter of declining GDP.

Thursday, June 19, 2008

China Cuts Oil Subsidy

Oil prices sank nearly $5 on Thursday after China said it would raise gas prices by lifting subsidies that have been blamed for driving oil prices higher. The move could curb demand from the country's rapidly growing economy.

Light, sweet crude for July delivery fell $4.75 to settle at $131.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

China's National Development and Reform Commission said that prices of gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel will increase by 8% beginning Friday.

read the CNN story

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Percentage of Income Spent on Gas


source New York Times

The Return of the Misery Index


Unemployment plus CPI


Unemployment, CPI, plus change in housing prices

from the Big Picture

Oil and Drilling Restrictions

If you add in the 85.9 billion barrels of oil that lie offshore, as determined by the Interior Department's Minerals Management Service, there are 117 billion barrels of oil on lands owned or managed by the U.S. government. But all expansion of offshore oil recovery is currently off-limits.

Adding in what's available on privately held land, the figure rises to 139 billion barrels of oil, according to the government - more than the known oil reserves of Iran, Iraq, Russia, Nigeria or Venezuela, respectively.


from Carpe Diem

My thoughts: Eliminate the restrictions and DRILL.

Minimum Wage and Unemployment

Since we have evidence that consumers respond to higher gas prices by driving less, wouldn't it also be the case that employers of unskilled workers would respond to 12% increases in wages for unskilled workers by hiring fewer unskilled workers?

In nominal dollars, there will be a 41% increase in the minimum wage, from $5.15 per hour in 2007, to $7.25 per hour in 2009. In real, inflation-adjusted dolars, it will be a 25.5% increase, and will be the largest 2-year increase in the real minimum wage in at least 50 years. And this HAS to have an adverse effect on employment of teenage workers.

According to BLS data on unemployment rates by age, it looks like almost all of the .50% increase in May unemployment to 5.5% from 5% in April was due to increases in the jobless rates for young workers in the 16-24 year age group, especially the 16-19 year group.

from Carpe Diem
My Comments: Congress cannot overturn the laws of supply and demand. They cannot wages or prices without the market responding to these external shocks. Sadly, as more and more people become permanently unemployable due to the ever increasing minimum wage, Congress will not recognize the harm it has caused and will call for even more rules, regulations, and laws.

Gas Prices at Record Highs

Gas prices have pushed higher above $4 a gallon and risen to a fresh record high, auto group AAA's Web site showed Tuesday.

AAA reported the national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline rose to $4.043, up 2 cents from the previous day's high of $4.023. This is the fourth consecutive increase and the third straight record for gas prices...

A CNN/Opinion Research poll released Monday showed that 86% of respondents believe gas prices will top $5 a gallon sometime this year.

In the face of soaring gas prices, many Americans say they have changed their driving habits. A full 66% said they are cutting back on the amount of driving they do and 71% indicated that they are considering buying a more fuel-efficient vehicle...

read the CNN story

My Comments: Demand curves slope downward. Image that.



Teen Summer (Un)employment

Researchers at Northeastern University described summer 2007 as “the worst in post-World War II history” for teen summer employment, and those same researchers say that 2008 is poised to be “even worse.”

According to their data, only about one-third of Americans 16 to 19 years old will have a job this summer, and vulnerable low-income and minority teens are going to fare even worse.

The percentage of teens classified as “unemployed” — those who are actively seeking a job but can’t get one — is more than three times higher than the national unemployment rate, according to the most recent Department of Labor statistics.

One of the prime reasons for this drastic employment drought is the mandated wage hikes that policymakers have forced down the throats of local businesses. Economic research has shown time and again that increasing the minimum wage destroys jobs for low-skilled workers while doing little to address poverty.

read the article

Friday, June 6, 2008

Oil Prices All Time High

Oil prices shot up nearly $11 a barrel and settled Friday at a record $138.54 on geopolitical jitters, a dollar decline and a forecast that oil would hit $150 by July 4.

Friday's spike in the July contract for light crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange marks the largest singe-day increase in oil prices on record. The contract hit an intraday record of $139.12, breaking the previous trading record of $135.09.

read the CNN story

Housing Market: Holyfield's Estate

109 room on 235 acres
Holyfield appeared on the verge of losing his home, which sits on 235 acres just south of the Fulton County line, after a foreclosure notice appeared in Wednesday's Fayette Daily News. Lien holder Washington Mutual, demanding full repayment of a $10 million loan, had scheduled an auction on July 1.

On Friday, Philip Hasty, an attorney for Shapiro & Swertfeger in Atlanta, the law firm representing Holyfield's lending company, confirmed that the estate is no longer up for auction. Hasty said that the change happened Thursday morning but he declined to comment further.

Holyfield would not elaborate on the foreclosure listing but said "everything is alright with the house now."

Holyfield's former accountant, Sam Gainer, who was fired by the former world champion last fall, said he had advised his client to sell the estate, or at least some of the property.

"To attack that house in any way, or suggest he get rid of it ... that's just not going to fly with him," said Gainer, though Holyfield has not said what his plans are for the property. The manor, completed nine years ago, has an appropriately grand address: Evander Holyfield Highway. It may not have its own area code, but the estate -- worth an estimated $20 million -- does have a bowling alley and movie theater.

"That's his trophy, his symbol of success," Gainer said of the home.

His fight purses since he turned professional in 1984 have totaled roughly $248 million, including $34 million for his 1997 rematch with Mike Tyson. Holyfield was paid $1 million last October to fight Russian Sultan Ibragimov; the former champ lost in the 12th round.

read the story

My Comments: How do you earn a quarter of a billion dollars and not manage to pay off you mortgage? Based on earning he should be able to afford an estate worth 2 or 3 times what he has without problems.





Unemployment Rate 5.5%

Chart from The Mess That Greenspan Made

0.5% increase is the biggest in 22 years.

Jim Rogers on the Economy


Click the picture for the link.

A great conversation with Jim Rogers on the economy, the Fed, "Helicopter Ben" Bernake, commodities, oil, etc.

Rogers on Bernanke: "He should go back and take Economics 101"