A Return to Budget Surpluses?

President Bush, in proposing a fiscal 2009 budget with a near-record deficit, insisted the government will run a surplus by 2012. But that outlook is based on scenarios considered unlikely by budget experts, congressional Democrats and even some Republicans.President Bush, in proposing a fiscal 2009 budget with a near-record deficit, insisted the government will run a surplus by 2012. But that outlook is based on scenarios considered unlikely by budget experts, congressional Democrats and even some Republicans.

War spending would have to drop to a fraction of its current level. Congress would have to make steep cuts in a raft of domestic programs, while cracking down on the growth of Medicare and Medicaid. And the economy, now slowing sharply, would have to rebound quickly to ensure that tax receipts cover an annual government tab topping $3 trillion.

Mr. Bush, in sending his budget to Congress, said the government would run deficits of $410 billion in 2008 and $407 billion in 2009, but post surpluses of $48 billion in 2012 and $29 billion in 2013. "Our formula for achieving a balanced budget is simple: Create the conditions for economic growth, keep taxes low, and spend taxpayer dollars wisely or not at all," he said...

Administration officials yesterday dismissed criticism that a balanced budget isn't credible. "Budgets are, frankly, one-year documents," White House Budget Director Jim Nussle said. "We project out five years, but they're one-year documents and they project what we believe is the path in order to get back to balance."

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The economy is not growing fast, taxes are not low and tax money is not being spent wisely. So the three conditions necessary to achieve a balanced budget are not being met. Don't expect to ever see a balanced budget.