Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Is the Recession Over?

As the data and graph suggest, there is almost no possibility that the economy will be in recession by the middle of this year according to the Fed's model, which has accurately predicted the last 7 recessions, back to 1960.


My thoughts: The recession will likely be "officially" over by March. The time lags will prevent the NBER from making a statement until late summer or early fall. The fundamentals are still not sound. The "stimulus" package will arrive too late, yet will likely be credited with ending the recession.

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