Friday, May 29, 2009

False Recovery?

Legendary investor Jim Rogers told CNBC on Wednesday he is not short or hedged in anything at the moment, but buying Japanese Yen. The next crisis in his eyes is in currencies which makes sense since sovereign states have taken much of the bad debt from the banks and piled them onto their own balance sheets.

The stock market may hit new lows this year or the next as the current rally has been largely caused by the money printed by central banks and fundamental problems remain unsolved, he said.

His views echo those of renowned bear Marc Faber, who told CNBC last week that the rises in share prices did not mean the world was embarking on a path of sustainable economic growth...

Governments have not solved the essential problems that caused the crisis but instead they "flooded the world with money," according to Rogers. Trying to solve the problem of too much consumption and too much debt with more consumption "defies belief" and will not work, he said.

The price of oil is also likely to remain high despite the fact that the recession is taking its toll on demand, he said.

"You know supplies worldwide are declining at the rate of anywhere from 4% to 6% a year, yes, demand is down at the moment but in longer term, unless somebody discovers a lot of oil very quickly, the surprise is going to be how high the price of oil stays, and how high it eventually goes," Rogers added.

The next financial meltdown will be in the currency markets, as central banks around the world have been printing money, giving the appearance of massive government intervention to weaken their currencies, legendary investor Jim Rogers, Chairman, Rogers Holdings, told CNBC on Wednesday.

"At the moment I have virtually no hedges, I suspect it is going to be the next problem, big crisis will be in the currency markets, I'm trying to figure out what to do there," Rogers said.

"If I am right, you're going to see a lot of currency problems in the next decade or two," Rogers said.

Governments around the world are doing their best to destroy currencies, many currencies in fact. And people need to understand that; if they don't understand it now, they're going to find out, they're going to find out the hard way," he added.

read the entire article

My thoughts: We might achieve a recovery on paper, but true economic prosperity could be years down the road.

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