Deficit Projections

Greg Mankiw writes:
Making matters worse, these bleak budget projections are based on relatively optimistic economic assumptions. The administration forecasts economic growth of 3.0 percent from the fourth quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter of 2010, followed by 4.3 percent the next year. By contrast, the Congressional Budget Office predicts growth of 2.1 percent and 2.4 percent for these two years. Lower growth would mean less tax revenue, larger budget deficits and a more rapidly increasing debt-to-G.D.P. ratio.

source

If the President’s proposals were enacted, the federal government would record deficits of $1.5 trillion in 2010 and $1.3 trillion in 2011. Those deficits would amount to 10.3 percent and 8.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), respectively. By comparison, the deficit in 2009 totaled 9.9 percent of GDP.

Measured relative to the size of the economy, the deficit under the President’s proposals would fall to about 4 percent of GDP by 2014 but would rise steadily thereafter. Compared with CBO’s baseline projections, deficits under the proposals would be about 2 percentage points of GDP higher in fiscal years 2011 and 2012, 1.3 percentage points greater in 2013, and above baseline levels by growing amounts thereafter. By 2020, the deficit would reach 5.6 percent of GDP, compared with 3.0 percent under CBO’s baseline projections.

CBO Estimates

2009: 1.413 trillion

2010 CBO baseline: $1360 billion
2010 CBO (Obama): $1500 billion

2011 CBO baseline: $995 billion
2011 CBO (Obama): $1341 billion

2012 CBO baseline: $641 billion
2012 CBO (Obama): $915 billion

Budget Deficit: $1.85 Trillion

The U.S. budget deficit in 2009 is projected to spike to between $1.67 trillion and $1.85 trillion, according to estimates released Friday by the Congressional Budget Office...

"CBO's estimates of the deficits under the president's budget are higher each year than those estimated by the administration -- by $93 billion for 2009 and by about $2.3 trillion for the 2010-2019 period," the report said...

An annual deficit between $1.67 trillion and $1.85 trillion would mark a record in dollar terms and the highest as a share of gross domestic product since World War II. It would represent between 11.9% and 13.1% of GDP.

The enormous leap in the annual deficit -- it was $459 billion in 2008 -- is primarily due to the effects of the financial and economic crises and the government's response to them...

read the CNN story

My thoughts: $2 trillion. We are six months away from the end of the fiscal year. Another stimulus package and rosy scenario projections will likely drive the deficit well beyond $2 trillion.

Cartoon: The Federal Budget

2010 Federal Budget

As director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, Orszag is charged with a seemingly impossible task: Figure out how to rein in the more than $3.5 trillion federal budget as the country tries to spend its way out of a fiscal mess.

The country will get a glimpse of Orszag's handiwork next week when President Obama presents Congress with an outline of his fiscal year 2010 budget request.

Roughly two-thirds of the federal budget -- about $2 trillion in 2008 -- is considered mandatory spending. That's money that Uncle Sam has committed to pay out in entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare, in interest owed on the national debt, and on other programs for which budget authority is written in stone.

The other third -- about $1 trillion -- is considered discretionary spending. That's money Congress decides on annually through appropriations bills. But even here lawmakers don't have as much flexibility as the word "discretionary" implies. Usually more than half is spent on security efforts such as defense.

read the CNN article

My thoughts: While the numbers are shocking, they will likly be considered "small" by the time Obama leaves office.