Showing posts with label charts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label charts. Show all posts

Saturday, March 8, 2008

Central Banking: US v. Europe


The contrasting ways Mr. Bernanke and Mr. Trichet responded to the crisis in the markets reflect something more than the differing economic and financial conditions in the United States and Europe.

At a more fundamental level, they reflect surprisingly different views of how each economy responds to the underlying forces affecting growth and inflation.

The Fed’s mandate, balanced between fighting inflation and encouraging full employment, leads to a simple investor calculus: if growth sags, the Fed is virtually certain to cut interest rates...

The European bank, by contrast, is skeptical of the notion that inflation automatically falls when growth cools, and it has a mandate, inherited from the German central bank, to keep prices stable above all else. So the view from the European bank’s sleek silvery headquarters here is very different from the Fed’s perspective in Washington, whatever market participants may think about the inevitability of lower European interest rates.

read the New York Times article

February 2008 Jobs


great charts from The Mess Greenspan Made

Employers made their deepest cut in staffing in almost five years in February, the Labor Department reported Friday.

There was a net loss of 63,000 jobs, which is the biggest decline since March 2003 and weaker than the revised 22,000 jobs lost in January. Economists had forecast a gain of 25,000 jobs.

The weak report fueled already mounting recession fears and is likely to keep the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates further when it meets later this month...

Despite the loss, the unemployment rate improved to 4.8% from the 4.9% reading in January. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate would rise to 5%. A survey of households is used to estimate the unemployment rate, while a survey of employers that is considered to be more accurate sets the readings on the changes in payrolls.

The unemployment rate fell because of an increase of 450,000 people whom the government no longer counts as being part of the labor force for a variety of factors, such as that they are not currently looking for work. That drop in the size of the labor force allowed for he modest decline in unemployment, even as the household survey showed 255,000 fewer Americans with jobs than in January.

read the CNN story

Remember unemployment numbers by themselves are not an accurate measure of the employment picture. February saw declining unemployment (generally good) and declining employment (bad) as people left the workforce.

Monday, March 3, 2008

2006 Tax Collection


from Visualizing Economics

ISM Manufacturing Index

The nation's broadest measure of manufacturing activity, the ISM Manufacturing Index, plunged back below the expansion/contraction line in February for the second time in three months, close to the five year lows reached in December.

from The Mess That Greenspan Made

This points toward recession, but does not guarantee one.

Tax Rates by Quintiles


from Mankiw

Friday, February 22, 2008

2008: Slow Growth, No Recession


Also Thursday, the Conference Board reported that its composite index of leading indicators, which is intended to show the economy's future direction, fell to 135.8 in January after an upwardly revised 0.1% drop in December. The reading matched the 0.1% median decrease estimate of 17 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires Monday.

With January's decline, the leading index has fallen 2% -- a decline of a 4% annual rate -- from July 2007 to January 2008, the largest six-month decline in the index since early 2001, the private research group said. In addition, weakness among the index components have been more widespread than the strengths in recent months.

In January, stock prices made the largest negative contribution to the index, and housing permits also made a large negative contribution. Smaller negatives came from manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods and interest rate spread. Positive contributors were real money supply, average weekly jobless claims, consumer expectations and vendor performance...

Looking at the figures, Ken Goldstein, labor economist at the Conference Board, said that while the leading index declined, the coincident index, which measures where the economy is at present "remains slow but steady."

The coincident index "is a better indicator than [gross domestic product] of where we are right now," Mr. Goldstein said, "and since [that index] was still showing a positive change in January, then the economy was not in recession." However, he said, "the change in the leading index, including the duration, intensity and dispersion across markets, suggests weak growth going forward."

read the WSJ story

Despite the continued fear, it appears the economy will avoid a recession in 2008.

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

ISM Report Fueling Recession Fears


In the U.S., a key barometer of the strength of the service sector dropped to its lowest level since October 2001, and suggested those businesses are now contracting. In Europe, a similar indicator fell to a four-year low.

The readings fanned fears on Wall Street that the U.S. is about to tip into recession, if it hasn't already done so, particularly startling analysts who had viewed services as the nation's last bastion of economic growth.

Yesterday, the Institute for Supply Management said its index of nonmanufacturing business activity, which is based on a survey of purchasing managers in service industries, fell to 41.9 in January from 54.4 in December. That was the sharpest decline in the survey's 10-year history. (A reading below 50 indicates the industries are shrinking.)

read the WSJ article

Saturday, February 2, 2008

Cost of War: New Updated Data

HISTORICAL COSTS OF U.S. WARS (In 2007 Dollars)

World War II $3.2 trillion
Iraq and Afghanistan To Date $695.7 billion
Vietnam War $670 billion
World War I $364 billion
Korean War $295 billion
Persian Gulf War $94 billion
Civil War (both Union and Confederate costs) $81 billion
Spanish-American War $7 billion
American Revolution $4 billion
Mexican War $2 billion
War of 1812 $1 billion

Source: Congressional Research Service and Office of Management and Budget data.


Click here for more info.
I would have that the Civil War would have been higher on the list.

Friday, February 1, 2008

Exxon Record Corporate Taxes?

The $40.6 billion and $39.5 billion figures are after-tax profits. For 2006, Exxon's EBT (earnings before tax) was $67.4 billion, it paid $27.9 billion in taxes (41.4% tax rate), and its NIAT (net income after tax), or profit, was $39.5 billion.

another great graph and post from Carpe Diem.

Employment Figures

During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.


The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected.

This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy.

read more here


While unemployment is trending upward, we are still in the "full employment range of 5-7%.

Thursday, January 31, 2008

How This Series of Rate Cuts Compares to the Past


Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who celebrates his second anniversary in the job tomorrow, now faces a delicate challenge. If his policy is successful, the economy will escape recession, few additional rate cuts will be needed and, paradoxically, his actions to date may end up looking excessive.

"If we end up worrying about inflation later this year that could well be the good outcome for the Fed because odds are it will mean that the economy has stabilized," said Peter Fisher, a former Fed official who is now co-head of fixed income for money manager BlackRock Inc. "It may end up looking like the pre-emptive easing was unnecessary...but that's the point of taking out insurance against the downside."

If so, that would require the Fed to quickly reverse some of its rate cuts. "They acted aggressively on the way down; that suggests they'll act as aggressively on the way up," said Vincent Reinhart, a former top Fed staffer now at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank.
Inflation is likely to the greater threat in 2008-2009. It is time to acknowledge this.