Peter Schiff on The American Jobs Act

Schiff writes:

Although it was labeled and hyped as a "jobs plan," the new $447 billion initiative announced last night by President Obama is merely another government stimulus program in disguise. But semantics are of supreme importance in American politics...some could argue that word choice is the only thing that matters. As a result, despite the fact that this plan bears no substantive difference from previous stimulus bills...

In the meantime money to fund the stimulus has to come from somewhere. Either the government will borrow it legitimately, or the Federal Reserve will print. Either way, the adverse consequences will damage economic growth and job creation, and lower the living standards of Americans...

The truth of course is that no real economic growth or job creation is going to occur until the failed policies of both Obama and Bush are reversed. In his speech the President mourned the death of the American dream. Obama should stop killing it. To revive that dream we need to revive the American spirit that produced it in the first place. That means returning to our traditional values of limited government and sound money. Unfortunately we are still headed in the wrong direction.

read the entire essay

Peter Schiff on the Economy

Schiff thinks the U.S. is headed not just for a recession but rather a full-blown depression. On the upside, he believes the coming economic situation will look familiar.

"The Depression [in the wake of the financial crisis] was temporarily interrupted by a bunch of stimulus which ultimately weakened the economy further," says Schiff. He adds the government's likely knee-jerk response of stimulating is, "probably going to be the fatal dose, the lethal dose" prior to "a complete economic collapse."

Which is precisely why Schiff wasn't among those expecting a debt deal relief rally last Monday morning. The attention paid to the deal was a "massive victory for propaganda that would have done Goebbels proud" (yes, this Goebbels). Schiff believes the real crisis wasn't the debt ceiling but spending and debt, both of which were effectively worsened by the deal.

"The reckless thing to do was to raise the debt ceiling" he says. Exacerbating matters Schiff thinks the ceiling is going to have to be raised yet again before President Obama leaves office. Not that the chance for DC to spend more freely will help the economy. "The reason we can't grow the economy is because the government is in the way... There's no jobs because there's no recovery."

By way of a cheery goodbye Schiff concludes, "We're on a collision course for disaster. All we can do, all your viewers can do is brace for impact...Buy gold. Buy silver... Get as far away as you can from U.S. currency and the U.S. economy."

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Peter Schiff on Bernanke's Gold Comments

Bernanke further disputes the facts by claiming that the only reason people are buying gold is to hedge against uncertainty, or "tail risks" as he calls them. My advice to the Chairman is to ask the people who are actually buying it. As someone who has been buying gold myself for a decade, I can assure him that my gold buying has nothing to do with "uncertainty." In fact, it's just the opposite. I am buying gold because of what is certain, not what is uncertain. I am certain that Mr. Bernanke's incompetence will destroy the value of the dollar and unleash runaway inflation.

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Peter Schiff on Gold and the Dow

Ludwig: Before this rally in gold is over, would you venture to guess how high it can go?

Schiff: I like to quote it in terms of the Dow, because you just don’t know how much inflation there’s going to be. So my target is for a relationship that’s close to 1-to-1 between gold and the Dow. I’ve had that target since the Dow was worth more than 40 ounces of gold. Right now it’s worth 8 or 8-1/2 ounces, so I think it’ll get down to 1-to-1. But you don’t know where that’s going to be. It could be Dow 5,000-gold $5,000, it could be Dow 10,000-gold $10,000; it could be Dow 20,000-gold $20,000; it could be Dow 2,000-gold $2,000. I don’t know where it’s going to be, but I think it’s going to happen.

Ludwig: Why 1-to-1?

Schiff: That was the low of the bear market of the 1930 and that was the low of the bear market of the 1970s. The Dow was worth one ounce of gold in 1932 and the Dow was worth one ounce of gold in 1980.

read the interview

The Collaspe of the Dollar?

Peter Schiff writes:

Much of the content of the latest Fed statement, released on September 21, echoes the central bank's previous post-credit crunch pronouncements: there is still too much slack in the economy, interest rates are still going to be near-zero for an "extended period," and the Fed will continue to use payments from its Treasury purchases to buy yet more Treasuries.

But this recent statement uses a new turn of phrase that should have Americans very upset.
The Fed says that "measures of underlying inflation are currently at levels somewhat below those the Committee judges most consistent, over the longer run, with its mandate." Though the wording treads lightly, it should not be taken lightly. It may signal the final push toward dollar collapse.

The Fed's dual mandate, since an amendment in 1977, has been to promote "price stability" and "maximum employment." While often discussed as if both goals are complementary facets of one mandate, they tend to have been at odds during every recession since the Great Depression.

The problem is that central banks tend to keep interest rates too low for too long (usually to create a feeling of prosperity credited to the government), which then causes major asset bubbles. When the bubbles pop, there is a period of high unemployment during which prices are supposed to fall. Then, the central bank must choose between boosting short-term employment through inflation or defending price stability by allowing assets to return to a reasonable market value. Aside from the early 1980s chairmanship of Paul Volcker, the Fed has always chosen more inflation...

The truth has always been that whatever the question you ask the Fed, the answer is inflation. With prices drifting steadily upward since its establishment in 1913, I dare to ask: has the Fed ever achieved its dual mandate?...

All the salient indicators tell me that the global dollar crisis has entered a new phase. The Fed is getting more aggressive about money printing because it really doesn't have any other politically viable options. I've always said the Fed uses inflation to give appearance of prosperity, but I never expected them to come out and say it! You don't give warning when you're about to rob somebody, because then the victim might take precautions – in this case, buying gold and foreign equities.

read the entire essay

My thoughts: Bernanke will destroy the economy will his printing press. Expect significant inflation, war, and $4,000/oz gold before we have return of true prosperity.

What's Holding Gold Back?

Peter Schiff writes:

Gold first broke $1,200 on December 2, 2009; nine months later, instead of witnessing the birth of the full-on gold boom I have long anticipated, the yellow metal has gained a modest 4%. Fortunately, it has spent the summer solidly above $1,150, which should put to rest the claim that we are seeing an exponential gold bubble like we saw in 1980. And those waiting for the "big pullback" to $8-900 might be seeing the futility in their cause. But I never doubted the strength of this secular bull market. In fact, I still maintain that gold is grossly undervalued. So, what's holding gold back?...

In the FY2010 budget, the federal government is spending 49% more than it is taking in revenue per year, adding to a national debt that is now 98.5% of GDP. Compare this to Greece, which is spending 33.5% more than revenue and has a debt of 113% of GDP. And the political climate here is just as hostile to even the mention of austerity. Unlike the EU, the US has guaranteed the ongoing viability of mortgage holders, major corporations, the states, and its own bloated social programs. Unlike Japan, the citizens can't be persuaded to shoulder these burdens because they are broke too...

However, Fed Chairman Bernanke has pledged to paper the world with new dollars if he sees so much as an hint of deflation. This is a virtual guarantee, from the only man with the power to make it, that Treasuries will be a bad bet under his tenure and that the dollar will fall relative to gold. Gold will be the real safe haven...

I maintain, based on historical comparisons, that the bottom of this depression will likely see the dow/gold ratio hit 1:1. This means that we are either in for a major decline in the Dow (unlikely) or an unprecedented rise in gold (likely). The US bond bubble is just like its predecessors in real estate and tech -- tedious to wait out but quick to blow up. Gold may be holding back now, but when the markets start to move, you better hope you chose the right safe haven.

read the entire essay

Peter Schiff on Gold

A decade after gold started its current bull run, we are still at half its inflation-adjusted peak. The run-up has been slow and orderly, with the price consolidated over the last three months at around $1,200. Dips like the recent drop below $1,160 have been correctly identified as bargain buying opportunities.

Despite a long rally without a major reversal, Wall Street aurophobes still refuse to see gold as a good investment; but they were wrong on the fundamentals in 2000, and the fundamentals haven't changed. As the world edges closer to the collapse of the US dollar system, gold prices have nowhere to go but up.

I continue to recommend that investors hold five to ten percent of their wealth in physical precious metals. Aside from the likelihood that gold and silver will rise in price, precious metals offer timeless benefits, such as financial privacy, elimination of counter-party risk (if you store them yourself), as well as protection from government confiscation, onerous securities regulation, and punitive tax rates.

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Peter Schiff: Financial Reform will Fail

1. The bill doesn’t get to the root causes of the crisis. Schiff blames former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan’s ‘too low for too long’ interest rate policy, combined with government-guaranteed mortgages for the rise and fall of the housing market. “That’s continuing today, it’s untouched by this bill. In fact, the Fed is more reckless today with zero percent interest rates than when they were one percent,” he tells Aaron in this clip. Plus, with so many private lenders out of business, the government is guaranteeing an even greater percentage of the mortgage market and has given Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac an unlimited line of credit until 2012.

2. The law fails to end ‘Too Big to Fail.’ “This law now guarantees that in the future even if they don’t want to bailout these banks they actually have to,” Schiff protests. “Designating a federally supervised wind-down process for major financial firms, the new structure signals to creditors that lending money to large financial firms will provide more security than loaning to firms too small to qualify for the program. As a result, these firms will enjoy continued advantages in the marketplace which will ensure the continued industry dominance.”

In contrast to Schiff's warning, the law does the following, according to Reuters:

“The bill would set up an "orderly liquidation" process that the government could use in emergencies, instead of bankruptcy or bailouts, to dismantle firms on the verge of collapse.

“The goal is to end the idea that some firms are 'too big to fail' and avoid a repeat of 2008, when the Bush administration bailed out AIG and other firms but not Lehman Brothers. Lehman's subsequent bankruptcy froze capital markets.

“Under the new rule, firms would have to have 'funeral plans' that describe how they could be shut down quickly.”

3. More regulation means higher costs for smaller financial services firms, reducing competition. “All the new regulations that are going to be written pursuant to this bill are going to add dramatically to the cost of doing business that is going to disproportionally hit the smaller firms who don’t have the economies of scale,” Schiff says, including his own firm in that mix.

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Watch An interview with Schiff here.

War Does Not Fix an Economy

Peter Schiff writes:

War is a great way to destroy things, but it's a terrible way to grow an economy.

What is often overlooked is that war creates hardship, and not just for those who endure the violence. Yes, US production increased during the Second World War, but very little of that was of use to anyone but soldiers. Consumers can't use a bomber to take a family vacation.

The goal of an economy is to raise living standards. During the War, as productive output was diverted to the front, consumer goods were rationed back home and living standards fell. While it's easy to see the numerical results of wartime spending, it is much harder to see the civilian cutbacks that enabled it.

The truth is that we cannot spend our way out of our current crisis, no matter how great a spectacle we create. Even if we spent on infrastructure rather than war, we would still have no means to fund it, and there would still be no guarantee that the economy would grow as a result.

What we need is more savings, more free enterprise, more production, and a return of American competitiveness in the global economy. Yes, we need Rosie the Riveter – but this time she has to work in the private sector making things that don't explode. To do this, we need less government spending, not more.

read the entire essay

Government Bubble

Peter Schiff writes:

Now that the real estate bubble has burst, the Fed is inflating the biggest bubble of them all – a bubble in government. While the earlier booms at least provided the illusion of prosperity and some fun while they lasted, the government bubble will cripple the economy and deliver widespread misery to the vast majority of Americans...

Our economy is being transformed from a mostly capitalistic one to a mostly socialistic one. More decisions are being made by politicians and lawyers in Washington and fewer by entrepreneurs. The motivation behind this shift is the mistaken belief that the financial crisis of 2008 was caused by too much capitalism and a lack of proper government oversight. This conclusion is self-serving for those in power, and couldn't be more economically misguided. Through corruption or just plain ignorance, Congress and this Administration have embraced an ideology that has failed every time it has been tried...

Whether it is in education, housing, health care, automobiles, insurance, or banking, greater government involvement in the economy means higher prices, lower productivity, more bailouts, bigger deficits, increased taxes, diminished industrial capacity, fewer private sector jobs, less freedom, and a falling standard of living.

In the end, when runaway inflation and skyrocketing interest rates burst the government bubble, there will be no more bubbles to replace it – just one hell of a hangover.

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Peter Schiff on Banking Reform

Once again, President Obama completely missed the mark on the causes of and solutions to the financial crisis. In his speech this morning, the President outlined a major initiative to increase regulation of banks. He claims the financial crisis was caused by reckless speculation by greedy bankers in search of quick profits. What he fails to acknowledge is that this behavior was the direct result of the cheap credit supplied by the Federal Reserve and the moral hazard supplied by government regulations and subsidies.

In his efforts to prevent the next financial crisis, the President is focused on the symptoms rather than the disease. Therefore, his attempt to prevent future financial crises is doomed to failure, as the misguided policies that led to the last crisis are preserved while even more damaging policies are added. Current Fed policy is more reckless than before; continued subsidies to the mortgage market and the bailouts for banks are creating even bigger moral hazards; and, as a result, the economy is even more leveraged and more vulnerable to rising interest rates than ever.

The only way to prevent another financial crisis would be to reverse the fiscal and monetary policies that lead to the last crisis, and which now threaten to bring on an ever larger one. However, this Administration seems to lack the brains or the guts to do it.

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Peter Schiff on the Economy

Although Barack Obama has refrained, at least for now, from delivering triumphant speeches in a naval flight suit, there is nevertheless a strong tone of accomplishment emanating from the President and his deputies. Over the weekend, top White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers even pronounced that the recession is now over. Without hedging his bets, Summers declared that thanks to the Obama Administration's wise stewardship, economic stimuli, and emergency bailouts, another Great Depression, set up by the prior Administration, had been narrowly averted. Summers saw no impediments to the return of sustainable growth. He may as well have delivered these remarks from the deck of an aircraft carrier.

I hate to shoot down these high-flying expectations, but the economy is not improving. All that has changed is that we are now more indebted to foreign creditors, with even less to show for it. Washington's current policies have once again deferred the fundamental, market-driven reforms needed to redirect us onto a sustainable path. Instead, through aggressive monetary and fiscal stimuli, we are trying to re-inflate a balloon that is full of holes. This was the Bush Administration's exact response to the 2002 recession. It's shocking how few observers note the repeating pattern, especially the fact that each crash is worse than the last...

First, a closer look at the jobs numbers shows that employment improved in sectors that benefited most directly from monetary or fiscal stimulus: government, healthcare, financial services, education and retail sales...

Second, major investment and commercial banks are not back on their feet, but remain fundamentally insolvent...

Third, while it is true that home prices have stopped falling, this represents failure, not victory...

Finally, it is true that the GDP yardstick shows an economy returning to growth. However, as I have often repeated, this measure has deep flaws that render it almost useless for judging the soundness of an economy...

But for now, the chattering classes believe strong government action has delivered us from calamity. For them, at least, it's “mission accomplished!”

read the entire essay

Peter Schiff on Insurance and Health Care Reform

Great commentary.

Peter Schiff on the Jobless Recovery

Today's release of the October jobs report showed the loss of another 190,000 jobs had pushed the official unemployment rate to 10.2%, only the second time since the Great Depression that unemployment was quoted in double digits (factoring in workers who had given up job hunting altogether or have settled for part-time work would push that rate to 17.5%). That didn't stop Wall Street pundits from trying to fashion a silk purse of this sow's ear. The 'green shoots' crowd focused on the slowing pace of job losses, the nascent economic 'recovery' (even if it is jobless), and the projected improvement in 2010. No mention was even made of the quality of what few jobs were being created...

By spending trillions of dollars of borrowed money, President Obama hopes to engineer a recovery and create jobs. However, he has only succeeded in digging America into an even deeper hole than the one he inherited from his predecessor. He believes that if we can simply push up spending to levels seen during the “good times,” then those favorable economic conditions will return. The reality, of course, was that those good years came with a heavy price-tag that we have barely begun to pay...

During the boom, we spent money we did not have to buy things we did not produce and could not afford. As a result, we are now deeply in debt and must sharply reduce our spending to replenish our savings. By focusing solely on consumer spending, the Administration is neglecting the capital investments necessary to improve our infrastructure and productive capacity.

To generate legitimate economic growth and meaningful jobs, we must reverse the trends that brought us down. Consumers may have led us into this recession, but they can't lead us out. The road to recovery is a one-way street, and it's paved with savings, capital investment, and production. It's not an easy road, but we must follow it to ensure our future prosperity.

As a first step, our politicians must stop pushing us backward. Rather than imposing more market-distorting regulations, we should repeal those most responsible for inefficient resource allocation. Rather than creating new moral hazards, we should withdraw guarantees for large financial institutions and irresponsible consumers. Rather than continuing the Greenspan policy of keeping interest rates too low, we should let them rise. Rather than trying to prop up asset prices, we should let them fall to market levels. Rather than increasing the burden of bureaucracy on the economy, we should look for ways to lighten the load. Rather than encouraging people to borrow and spend, we should reward those who save and produce.

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Peter Schiff: Gold to Hit $5,000

Peter Schiff Interview

Speaking in an exclusive interview with Dan Mangru of www.Moneynews.com Schiff said: "As painful as it is, this recession is necessary.”

“We’re never going to have a vibrant economy if we keep concentrating on reflating a busted bubble".

“The government is taking money away from people who are doing it right and giving it to people who are doing it wrong. That’s a recipe for disaster,” said Schiff.

“Why should successful companies be punished to bail out unsuccessful companies?”

Capitalism is about the survival of the fittest, but government stimulus are making it the survival of the unfit, he said.

Can anything be done to save the US economy? We will go through a serious retrenchement brought about by the sins of the past, but the US can rebound.

"Capitalism is a dynamic system," but we need to unleash it, Schiff said.

"We need to get the governement out of the way," he says because their acions are digging a deeper hole rather than allowing the market to fill the hole up.

“We stimulated our way out of that (2001-2002) recession into this depression,” he says.

Schiff said the theory that the world economies are linked like a train and that the US is the engine, is wrong. “I think the world represents the engine and the US the caboose,” he said.
Why? Because the US takes more out than it puts in.

“The world has been spending a lot of energy dragging a caboose that consumes more than it produces and borrows more than it saves.” The rest of the world gives subsidies to the US, Schiff said.

Schiff says the stock market is in a bear market rally. The recent bull run is driven by the fact that shares reached insanely cheap valuations in the period up to March 2009, so we are making up ground now.

Cash was king in 2008, but Cash is trash in 2009, said Schiff, as inflationary fears rise and investors move out of cash into something more tangible.

The current equities run will probably end as the dollar reaches new lows, bond prices fall farther and interest rates spike.

“I think the bear market has been here since 2000 and will be with us for another five to 10 years,” he says.

read the article

Peter Schiff on the Economy

To return our economy to health, we must first allow market forces to ring out the excesses of the bubble years. Even government economists acknowledge that this decade’s spending boom resulted from a combination of asset bubbles and the dangerous overextension of consumer credit. Yet the same economists balk at the logical need for spending to drop now that the stimuli are no longer in effect. They argue for the resumption of spending by any means, regardless of its ultimate cost. This is a recipe for momentary gain and lasting pain.

America’s economic vitality will never be restored until we rebuild our savings and pay down our debts. To build back up, we must change the pattern of capital flows from the phony economy. It is a painful process, but one that will leave our economy on a stronger foundation. Unfortunately, Americans cannot accomplish these goals unless they stop shopping, live within their means, and replenish their savings. Though this may be problematic for retailers, it is beneficial to the overall economy...

We must once again become the leader in economic freedom. This entails dismantling a significant portion of our federal and state governments, repealing countless unnecessary regulations, significantly lowering and simplifying taxes, and reinstituting sound money. If we accomplish these tasks, conditions will be ripe for a lasting recovery that solidifies our place at the top of the global economic totem pole...

There are two ways to rebalance the American economy. The right way is to restore competitiveness through diminished government spending, deregulation, lower taxes, and higher savings. Higher savings will facilitate capital formation, and lower taxes and fewer regulations will allow that capital to improve the competitiveness of American labor. Improved productivity and capital investment will translate into higher real wages and pave the way to higher future living standards...

Though president Obama claims that his policies will not raise taxes on average Americans, the unfortunate truth is that the effect of his policies will be to lower wages. The choice is simple: either we shrink government and enjoy higher wages, or grow government and accept lower wages.

Peter Schiff on the Economy

Listen to the 6:00 to 8:00 mark for some good analysis.

Peter Schiff Runs for Senate 2010

Peter Schiff on the "Experts"

There is an inexplicable, but somehow widely held, belief that stock market movements are predictive of economic conditions. As such, the current rally in U.S. stock prices has caused many people to conclude that the recession is nearing an end. The widespread optimism is not confined to Wall Street, as even Barack Obama has pointed to the bubbly markets to vindicate his economic policies. However, reality is clearly at odds with these optimistic assumptions.

In the first place, stock markets have been taken by surprise throughout history. In the current cycle, neither the market nor its cheerleaders saw this recession coming, so why should anyone believe that these fonts of wisdom have suddenly become clairvoyant?...

Though the worst of the global financial crisis may have passed, the real impact of the much more fundamental U.S. economic crisis has yet to be fully felt. For America, genuine recovery will not begin until current government policies are mitigated. Most urgently, we need a Fed chairman willing to administer the tough love that our economy so badly needs. The fact that Ben Bernanke remains so popular both on Wall Street and Capital Hill is indicative of just how badly he has handled his job...

Conversely, Bernanke’s reputation will be shattered as history reveals the full extent of his incompetence and cowardice.

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