Showing posts with label bear market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bear market. Show all posts

Sunday, September 11, 2011

S and P 500: The Lost Decade



We're now over eleven years beyond the S&P 500 2000 high. This little charting exercise gives credence to the frequent reference to a "lost decade" for investors. In nominal terms, the index is about 6.8 percent below where it was at the 2000 peak, but in real terms, it's a disappointing 29.5 percent off the original investment. The chart also offers support for the wisdom of diversification across asset classes ... and perhaps the value of active management during secular bear markets.


Monday, August 9, 2010

Four Bears


The August 6th S&P 500 close is the final data point for the Four Bad Bears chart. The timeline was established by the length of the 1929-1932 Dow crash, and today we reach the equivalent point following the S&P high of 2007.

source

Monday, October 27, 2008

Bear Market

Financial forecasters are in a race to call the bottom to the bear market. And just as on the way up, when analysts competed for attention with their forecasts of bigger and bigger gains, the financial pundit class now seems compelled to out-gloom the next guy.

“To make a crazy forecast today is not crazy,” said Owen Lamont, a former professor at Yale who has studied economic forecasting. “It’s not crazy to predict the Dow is going to 2,000. That’s in the realm of possibility.”

Indeed, in an era of 1,000-point daily swings in the Dow and 30 percent losses in the stock market, prescience is at a premium — and the dividends of a high-profile correct call can be immense.

from the New York Times