Growth and Unemployment

The following table summarizes several scenarios over the next year (starting from the current 9.6% unemployment rate):

Real GDP Growth	Unemployment Rate in One Year
0.0%	11.0%
1.0%	10.5%
2.0%	10.0%
3.0%	9.6%
4.0%	9.1%
5.0%	8.7%

I expected a sluggish recovery in 2010, so I thought the unemployment rate would stay elevated throughout 2010 (that was correct)...

In general, the U.S. economy needs to grow faster than a 3% real rate to reduce the unemployment - and there is no evidence yet of a pickup in growth.

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Jobs Adjustment by Industry

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In the Great Recession on 35 percent of employment was in industries that faced cyclical employment trends in the recession. The majority of industries lost or gained jobs permanently (or at least have lost or gained jobs on a continued basis for the past 11 months).

The one outlier in the top right corner, if you can't make it out, is the "federal government" industry. It gained jobs during the recession and has gained jobs far faster than any other industry during the recovery.

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