March 2012 Unemployment: 8.2%

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Feburary Unemployment: 8.3%

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

This shows the depth of the recent employment recession - much worst than any other post-war recession - and the relatively slow recovery due to the lingering effects of the housing bust and financial crisis.

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Jan Unemployment Rate: 8.3%

The Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by 243,000 from December to January and the jobless rate fell from 8.5 percent to 8.3 percent. Private sector job gains of 257,000 were broad based with professional and business services leading the way and the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since February 2009.

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December 2011 Unemployment: 8.5%

After holding steady at about 9 percent during most of 2011, the jobless rate has now declined by 0.6 percentage points in just the last three months as the number of unemployed persons has fallen from 13.9 million to 13.1 million. During that same time, the size of the labor force has decreased from 154.0 million to 153.9 million, reducing the participation rate from 64.1 percent to 64.0 percent.

A broader measure of job distress – U6 underemployment that includes discouraged workers and those settling for part-time work – fell from 15.6 percent to 15.2 percent, down from a high of nearly 17 percent earlier in the year.

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8% Unemployment by November 2012?

Many forecasters think the unemployment rate will increase next year because of sluggish growth. Right now the FOMC is forecasting the unemployment rate will be in the 8.5% to 8.7% range in Q4 2012, and private forecasters are even more pessimistic. Goldman Sachs is forecasting 9% in Q4 2012, and Merrill Lynch is forecasting 8.8%.

But it is possible that we could see 8% by the election. It depends on job creation and the participation rate...

If the participation rate falls to 63.5%, the economy needs to add 74 thousand jobs per month for the unemployment rate to fall to 8%. But a further decline in the participation rate would not be good news. I expect the participation rate to increase if the economy improves at all.

Most likely I think the participation rate will be in the 64.0% to 64.5% range next November. That would mean the economy would need to add somewhere between 167,000 and 260,000 jobs per month. The bottom end of that range seems possible with sluggish growth, but the top end is less likely.

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November Unemployment: 8.6%

The number of unemployed people fell from 13.9 million in October to 13.3 million in November while the labor force shrank from 154.2 million to 153.9 million, so, it was a combination of these two factors that drove the jobless rate lower. The broader U6 measure of under-employment (including discouraged workers and those settling for part-time work) fell from 16.2 percent to 15.6 percent.

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November Unemployment: 8.6%

There were only 120,000 jobs added in November. There were 140,000 private sector jobs added, and 20,000 government jobs lost.

The change in total employment was revised up for September and October. "The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from +158,000 to +210,000, and the change for October was revised from +80,000 to +100,000."

U-6, an alternate measure of labor underutilization that includes part time workers and marginally attached workers, declined to 15.6% - this remains very high. U-6 was in the 8% range in 2007.

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How Bad is the Unemployment Situation?

If we continue to see sluggish growth with 125,000 payroll jobs added per month (the pace this year), it will take an additional 52 months just to get back to the pre-recession level of payroll employment.

If job growth picks up a little - say to 200,000 payroll jobs per month - it will take an additional 33 months to get back to the pre-recession level.

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How Bad is the Unemployment Situation?

October 2011 Unemployment Rate: 9.0%

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August Unemployment: 9.1%

The jobless rate held steady at 9.1 percent and the official tally of unemployed workers was virtually unchanged at 14 million. The broad U6 measure of underemployment – including those who have given up looking for work and who are working part-time for economic reasons – rose from 16.1 percent to 16.2 percent.

The number of long-term unemployed – those going without work for 27 weeks or more – was unchanged at 6.0 million and they accounted for a stunning 42.9 percent of the unemployed while the civilian labor force participation rate was steady at 64.0 percent.

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Unemployment August: 9.1%

The current employment recession is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and 2nd worst in terms of the unemployment rate (only the early '80s recession with a peak of 10.8 percent was worse).

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.1% (red line). The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 64.0% in August (blue line). This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The participation rate is well below the 66% to 67% rate that was normal over the last 20 years, although some of the decline is due to the aging population.

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Cartoon: Unemployment

July Unemployment 9.1%

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July Unemployment 9.1%

The Labor Department reported that U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 117,000 in July, the private sector adding 154,000 new jobs, and employment gains in May and June were revised upward by a combined 56,000. The jobless rate fell from 9.2 percent to 9.1 percent, however, this was largely the result of 193,000 people dropping out of the labor force.

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May 2011 Unemployment: 9.1%

The Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by just 54,000 in May, far below expectations for a gain of more than 150,000, and the jobless rate rose from 9.0 percent to 9.1 percent, adding to the recent gloom about the U.S. economy that, with each new report, appears to have entered a “soft patch” or, perhaps, something more serious.

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Great Recession Unemployment

This shows the severe job losses during the recent recession - there are currently 6.96 million fewer jobs in the U.S. than when the recession started in 2007.

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April Unemployment: 9%

The current employment recession is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and 2nd worst in terms of the unemployment rate (only the early '80s recession with a peak of 10.8 percent was worse).

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January 2011 Unemployment: 9.0%

The Labor Department reported nonfarm payrolls rose by just 36,000 in January while the unemployment rate fell from 9.4 percent to 9.0 percent, the lowest level since April of 2009.

Though hiring in the manufacturing sector was quite strong, the nonfarm payrolls gain was disappointing, well below the consensus estimate of 140,000.
The drop in the jobless rate was a pleasant surprise was also disappointing as it was due largely to more workers finding jobs leaving the rather than a shrinking labor force. The broader U-6 measure of unemployment, including those who have stopped looking for work and those settling for part-time work, fell from 16.7 percent to 16.1 percent.

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November Unemployment 9.8%

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms - this time from the start of the recession. In the previous post, the graph showed the job losses aligned at the bottom.The dotted line shows payroll employment excluding temporary Census workers. This is by far the worst post WWII employment recession.

The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms aligned at maximum job losses.The dotted line is ex-Census hiring. The two lines have joined since the decennial Census is over.For the current employment recession, employment peaked in December 2007, and this recession is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and 2nd worst in terms of the unemployment rate (only the early '80s recession with a peak of 10.8 percent was worse).

The unemployment rate increased to 9.8% (red line).The Employment-Population ratio declined to 58.2% in November matching the cycle low set in 2009 (black line). The Labor Force Participation Rate was steady at 64.5% in November (blue line). This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The participation rate is well below the 66% to 67% rate that was normal over the last 20 years.

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