Gold and Hyperinflation

HYPERINFLATION WILL DRIVE GOLD TO UNTHINKABLE HEIGHTS

by Egon von Greyerz

We now live in a world where governments print worthless pieces of paper to buy other worthless pieces of paper that combined with worthless derivatives, finance assets whose values are totally dependent on all these worthless debt instruments. Thus most of these assets are also worth-less...

Let us be very clear, this financial Shangri-La is now coming to an end. The financial system is broke, many western sovereign states are bankrupt and governments will continue to apply the only remedy they know which is issuing debt that will never ever be repaid with normal money.

So why does the world still believe that the financial system is sound?

• Firstly, because this is what totally clueless governments are telling everyone and this is what investors want to hear.
• Secondly, whether governments apply austerity like in parts of Europe or money printing as in the US, investors want to believe that any action by government is good, however inept.
• Thirdly, market participants are in a state of false security due to shortsightedness and limited understanding of history.
• Fourthly, as long as they can benefit from inflated and false asset values, the market participants will continue to manipulate markets.
• Fifthly, there has been a very skilful campaign by the US to divert the attention from their bankrupt economy and banks `to small European countries like Greece, Ireland or Portugal. These nations, albeit in real trouble, have problems which are miniscule compared to the combined difficulties of the US Federal Government, states, cities and municipalities.

Bearing in mind that we are likely to see hyperinflation in the US, the UK and many European countries, the $6-10,000 target for gold is much too low. The dilemma is that it is absolutely impossible to predict how much money will be printed by governments. In the Weimar republic gold reached DM 100 trillion. But it is really irrelevant what level gold and other precious metals will reach in hyperinflationary money.

What is much more important to understand is that physical gold (and silver) will protect investors against losing virtually 100% of the purchasing power of their money. Whatever real capital appreciation gold will have in the next few years is of less importance. But what is vital, is that physical gold (stored outside the banking system) is the ultimate form of wealth protection both against a deflationary collapse and a hyperinflationary destruction of paper money.

read the entire essay

Ron Paul on the Fed

What the Federal Reserve still fails to realize is that intervention in the economy is always harmful. Unlike the late French economist, Frederic Bastiat, the Fed only sees what is seen, the superficial results of its policies, and not what is unseen, the effects of its monetary intervention throughout the economy. Monetary inflation leads to malinvestment and causes the boom phase of the business cycle. Once the malinvestment is realized the bust phase occurs, and these malinvested resources need to be liquidated in order for the economy to recover. But the Fed actively works to prevent this liquidation and does everything in its power to continue inflating in order to prolong the boom. The first act of intervention begets the second and subsequent interventions, each bigger than the first, as each economic bust gets larger and more severe.

The idea that a handful of brilliant minds can somehow steer the economy is fatal to economic growth and stability. The Soviet Union's economy failed because of its central planning, and the United States economy will suffer the same fate if we continue down the path toward more centralized control. We need to return to sound money, bring back free markets, and rein in the Fed.

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Hyperinflation

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Hyperinflation Fears

The U.S. economy will enter “hyperinflation” approaching the levels in Zimbabwe because the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to raise interest rates, investor Marc Faber said.

Prices may increase at rates “close to” Zimbabwe’s gains, Faber said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Hong Kong. Zimbabwe’s inflation rate reached 231 million percent in July, the last annual rate published by the statistics office.

“I am 100 percent sure that the U.S. will go into hyperinflation,” Faber said. “The problem with government debt growing so much is that when the time will come and the Fed should increase interest rates, they will be very reluctant to do so and so inflation will start to accelerate.”...

“There are some concerns of a risk from inflation from all the liquidity injected into the banking system but it’s not an immediate threat right now given all the excess capacity in the U.S. economy,” said David Cohen, head of Asian economic forecasting at Action Economics in Singapore. “I have a little more confidence that the Fed has an exit strategy for draining all the liquidity at the appropriate time.”

Action Economics is predicting inflation of minus 0.4 percent in the U.S. this year, with prices increasing by 1.8 percent and 2 percent in 2010 and 2011, respectively, Cohen said.

read the Bloomberg essay

My thoughts: I think double digit inflation similar to the 1970s is a given. It could top twenty percent. The question is when. It could be 2012-2014. Possibly earlier, possibly later. There are too many unfactors to give precise predictions. The possible collaspe of the dollar could trigger it. Within the next decade, $5 gas may become commmon.

Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe 531 Billion Percent

Zimbabwe is the first country in the 21st century to hyperinflate. In February 2007, Zimbabwe’s inflation rate topped 50% per month, the minimum rate required to qualify as a hyperinflation (50% per month is equal to a 12,875% per year). Since then, inflation has soared.
The last official inflation data were released for June and are hopelessly outdated. The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe has been even less forthcoming with money supply data: the most recent money supply figures are ancient history—January 2008.

Absent current official money supply and inflation data, it is difficult to quantify the depth and breadth of the still-growing crisis in Zimbabwe. To overcome this problem, Cato Senior Fellow Steve Hanke has developed the Hanke Hyperinflation Index for Zimbabwe (HHIZ). This new metric is derived from market-based price data and is presented in the accompanying table for the January 2007 to present period. As of 26 September 2008, Zimbabwe’s annual inflation rate was 531 billion percent.

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Zimbabwe Attempts to Fight Inflation

Zimbabwe's central bank governor says he is knocking 10 zeros off the country's hyper-inflated currency to make 10 billion dollars become one dollar...

Just last week Gono introduced a new 100 billion-dollar note that is not enough to buy a loaf of bread.

Gono said on Aug. 1 the bank will issue a 500-dollar bill equivalent to 5 trillion dollars at the current rate.

read the CNN story

Zimbabwe $100 Billion Banknote

Zimbabwe's troubled central bank introduced $100 billion banknotes Saturday in a desperate bid to ease the recurrent cash shortages plaguing the inflation-ravaged economy.

The bills officially come into circulation Monday, although they were on the foreign currency dealers market Saturday.

As high as they are, though, the bills still aren't enough to buy a loaf of bread. They can buy only four oranges.

The new note is equal to just one U.S. dollar.

Once-prosperous Zimbabwe has seen an unprecedented economic meltdown since it gained independence in 1980, with the official inflation rate now at 2.2 million percent.

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My thoughts: Remember inflation is an increase in the money supply.

Zimbabwe Hyperinflation

It has come to this: Zimbabwe is about to run out of the paper to print money on.

Fidelity Printers & Refiners, the state-owned company that tirelessly churns out bank notes for the Robert Mugabe regime, was thrown into a crisis early this month after a German company stopped supplying bank note paper because of concerns over Zimbabwe's recent violent presidential election, widely seen as fraudulent by international observers.

The printing operation drastically slowed. Two-thirds of the 1,000-strong workforce was ordered to go on leave, and two of the three money-printing shifts were canceled.

The result on the streets was an immediate cash crunch.

"If you think this currency shortage is bad, wait two weeks. By then it will be a disaster," said a senior Fidelity staffer, who spoke to The Times on condition of anonymity because he would face dismissal and possible violence for talking to a Western journalist. The paper will run out in two weeks, he said...

As hyperinflation spiraled last year, Fidelity printed million-dollar notes, then 5-million, 10-million, 25-million, 50-million. This year, it has been forced to print 100-million, 250-million and 500-million notes in rapid succession, all now practically worthless. The highest denomination is now 50 billion Zimbabwean dollars (worth a U.S. dollar on the street).

Despite the recent currency shortage, the Zimbabwean dollar has continued to slide against the U.S. dollar and shopkeepers are still increasing their prices steeply. The price of the state-owned Herald newspaper has leaped from 200,000 Zimbabwean dollars early this month to 25 billion now. Before the crunch, a beer at a bar in Harare, the capital, cost 15 billion Zimbabwean dollars. At 5 p.m. July 4, it cost 100 billion ($4 at the time) in the same bar.

read the article

Hyperinflation and Expiration Dates

Notice the expiration date for the bill.

Hat tip to Carpe Diem

Zimbabwe Can't Calculate Inflation Rate

Zimbabwe's chief statistician has said it is impossible to work out the country's latest inflation rate because of the lack of goods in shops...

Maize meal, bread, meat, cooking oil, sugar and other basic goods used to measure inflation largely disappeared from shops after Robert Mugabe's government ordered prices to be slashed.

Manufacturers have said they cannot afford to sell goods at below the cost of producing them.

Most basics are intermittently available on the black market at well over the official prices.

read the article

Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe

No end in sight.