Showing posts with label real GDP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label real GDP. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

2011 4th Quarter GDP: 3.0%



The Commerce Department reported that higher levels of spending by consumers and businesses resulted in an upward revision to U.S. economic growth during the fourth quarter of 2011, the annualized rate of 2.8 percent that was reported a month ago revised up to 3.0 percent in the second of three estimates for the period.


Friday, January 27, 2012

4th Quarter 2011: 2.8% Growth

This is the first of three estimates for the period and marks the best growth rate in a year-and-a-half following a reading of 1.8 percent in the third quarter. But, don’t be surprised if the most recent data is revised lower since downward revisions have been the norm in recent quarters, the third quarter data starting out at a similar level – a 2.5 percent rate – when it was initially reported.

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Friday, August 26, 2011

2nd Quarter GDP: 1.0%



The dashed line is the current growth rate. Growth in Q2 at 1.0% annualized was below trend growth (around 3%) - and very weak for a recovery, especially with all the slack in the system.



Slow Growth Continues



Economic growth in the second quarter was slightly weaker than previously estimated, according to revised U.S. government data released Friday.


Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economic health, rose at an annual rate of 1% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said.



Saturday, July 30, 2011

GDP 2nd Quarter 2011: 1.3%


In the “advance” estimate for the second quarter, the Commerce Department reported that real economic growth in the U.S. increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent, far below consensus estimates of a two percent rate, and, as part of the annual data revisions, growth in the first quarter was revised downward, from a 1.8 percent rate to just 0.4 percent.

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Great Recession: The "Recovery" Continues


According to the Bureau of EconomicAnalysis (BEA), real GDP is still below the pre-recession peak. The estimate for real GDP in Q2 (2005 dollars) is $13,270.1 billion, still 0.4% below the $13,326 billion in Q4 2007...

At the worst point, real GDP was off 5.1% from the 2007 peak. Since the most common definition of a depression is a 10%+ decline in real GDP, the 2007 recession was not a depression. Note: There is no formal definition of a depression. Some people use other definitions such as the duration below the previous peak. By that definition, using both GDP and employment, this seems like the "Lesser depression", but not by the common definition.

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Monday, July 25, 2011

2nd Quarter GDP Estimates


This graph shows the quarterly GDP growth (at an annual rate) for the last 30 years.

The consensus is that real GDP increased 1.8% annualized in Q2. The estimate for Q2 is in blue.

Back-to-back weak quarters and a sluggish and choppy recovery ...

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Monday, July 4, 2011

GDP Growth



The obvious connection, as I’ve pointed out on many occasions, is that America is becoming a European-style welfare state and it is unavoidable that we will suffer from European-style economic malaise.

P.S. It should be noted that America’s anemic economic performance in recent years is not solely Obama’s fault. As the White House repeatedly points out, he inherited a downturn. That is completely accurate. My complaint, however, is that Obama promised hope and change but instead has exacerbated the big government policies of his predecessor.

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Friday, March 25, 2011

Q4 GDP Growth Revised from 2.8% to 3.1%

The Commerce Department reported that, in the third and final estimate for the fourth quarter of 2010, the U.S. economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.1 percent, up from the prior estimate of 2.8 percent.The upward revision was due mostly to higher business investment and a smaller inventory build.

GDP Growth Rates

On an annual basis, real GDP grew by 2.9% in 2010, the highest annual gain since a 3.05% increase in 2005, according to today's BEA report. In dollars, real GDP in 2010 was $13.248 trillion, which set a new annual record for U.S. output, surpassing the $13.228 trillion levels in 2007 and 2008.

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Real Gross Domestic Income Still Below Pre-Recession Peak


According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real GDP is now slightly above the pre-recession peak. Real GDP (in 2005 dollars) was at $13,380.7 billion in Q4, just 0.13% above the $13,363.5 billion in Q4 2007.However real Gross Domestic Income (GDI) is still 0.25% below the pre-recession peak.

Q4 Real GDP Growth revised up to 3.1%


Monday, February 7, 2011

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real GDP is now slightly above the pre-recession peak. Real GDP (in 2005 dollars) was at $13,382.6 billion in Q4, just 0.14% above the $13,363.5 billion in Q4 2007.

However industrial production is still 5.8% below the pre-recession peak, and it will probably be some time before industrial production returns to pre-recession levels.

Payroll employment is still 5.6% below the pre-recession peak. And even with slightly above trend GDP growth in 2011, payroll employment growth will probably only recover slowly. Payroll employment is still 7.7 million below the pre-recession peak, and if the the U.S. adds 2.5 million payroll jobs per year over the next 3 years (my current forecast is 2.4 million private sector jobs this year), it would take 3+ years to return to the pre-recession peak. And that doesn't include population growth!


This graph shows real personal income less transfer payments as a percent of the previous peak.This has been slow to recover - and is still 4.3% below the previous peak.

Sunday, January 30, 2011

Real GDP Now Above Pre-Recession Level

"U.S. economic output finally regained the level reached before the recession, as growth sped up on stronger consumer spending and exports (see chart above).

Gross domestic product—a broad measure of all goods and services produced—grew at a 3.2% annual rate in the fourth quarter. That's up from the 2.6% pace notched the quarter before and confirms the view held by many economists and stock-market investors that the economy is gaining enough momentum to start bringing down unemployment in the months ahead.

The expansion in large part was fueled by a jump in consumer spending—a crucial change from earlier in the recovery, when growth relied heavily on businesses investing and building up inventories. Final sales—a measure that gives a feeling for underlying demand in the economy by subtracting the change in business inventories from GDP—notched its biggest increase since 1984, growing 7.1% in the fourth quarter. This reviving demand bodes well for 2011, because businesses could take it as a signal to stock their shelves and hire workers."

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